CIS slab prices heat up some more, as supply dwindles Thursday, 03 February 2011 CIS slab export prices November 2010 - March 2011 | ©SBB 2011 | | | Nov 10 | Dec 10 | Jan 11 | Feb 11 | Mar 11* | FOB $/t | 500 - 530 | 540 - 560 | 650 - 660 | 650 - 670 | 700 - 730 | * SBB forecast, except announced surcharges | Although CIS slab exporters are out of the market at the moment, the cloud of expectations of increasing prices is hanging over the market. In contrast to billet and long products prices, the flat product and slab market is continuing to move up, underpinned by higher costs and continuous genuine shortage of availability, industry sources tell Steel Business Briefing. "It is hard to pinpoint exactly which one of these factors is playing the biggest part in current slab bull run, but we are dealing now simultaneously with increasing costs, weather cataclysms affecting coal supply, increasing genuine end-user demand in the CIS, and most importantly, the explosion of prices in the USA," a seasoned market observer says. Admittedly, it is the latter that is likely to cause the market to crash eventually, but the longer the end-user demand improvement goes on, the farther away the eventual collapse will be, he says. For now, though, it looks like slab market will continue strong through spring, he concludes. Indeed, with Evraz out of the market for March casting and Novolipetsk experiencing increasing internal slab demand, two major Russian exporters are practically out of the market, sources say. "Ukrainian producers will have an advantage, which they will not want to waste," one source says. He adds that already Alchevsk is reported to have sold at $685/t fob Black Sea last week, and higher bids have been heard of, which were not accepted, afterwards. The mills are expected to come out with March allocations next week, after the Chinese New year holidays are over. | |